We aim to identify predictors of therapy-related myeloid neoplasms (t-MN) in patients with breast cancer (BC) and cytopenias to determine the timing of bone marrow biopsy (BMBx). Patients with BC and cytopenias who were referred for BMBx between 2002-2018 were identified using the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center institutional database. Characteristics associated with the risk of t-MN were evaluated by multivariable logistic regression and included in a predictive model. The average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was estimated by 5-fold cross-validation. Of the 206 BC patients who underwent BMBx included in our study, 107 had t-MN. By multivariable analysis, white blood cell count 4-11 K/mcL, absolute neutrophil count (ANC) ≥1.5 K/mcL, hemoglobin ≥12.2 g/dL, red cell distribution width 11.5-14.5%, the presence of bone metastasis and a time from BC diagnosis to BMBx <15 months significantly decreased the likelihood of t-MN. The average AUC was 0.88. We stratified our cohort by bone metastasis and by findings on peripheral smear. In both the subset without bone metastasis (n= 159) and in the cohort with no blasts or dysplastic cells on peripheral smear (n= 96) our variables had similar effects on the risk of t-MN. Among the 47 patients with bone metastasis, an ANC ≥1.5 K/mcL was the only variable associated with a decreased risk of t-MN. Our findings show that in patients with BC and unexplained cytopenias, clinical and laboratory parameters can predict t-MN and assist clinicians in determining the timing of a BMBx.
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